Edd
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Portsmouth League AnalysisI'd like to have a look at the information available and analyse the history of the Portsmouth Chess League a little. This is all concerned with Division 1.
Portsmouth last won the league in 1981/2 , a quarter of a century ago.
Since then, only three teams have won it*: Cosham, Fareham, and Gosport. (*IBM A won it once in 1988/9).
In the last 25 years:
Cosham have won 10 times
Fareham have won 3 times
Gosport have won 10 times
In the last 10 years:
Gosport have dominated with 7 wins
Cosham have won the other 3 times
Gosport won 6 times in a row from 1999/2000 to 2004/5 but Cosham broke this winning streak by winning in 2005/6.
These two teams are very close in the concluding phases of the league for 2006/7, so it will be interesting to see who prevails.
It is clear that for a decade, Gosport A and Cosham A have dominated the chess league. It would be interesting to see another team strengthen enough to compete with these two sides. It is not clear however, as the average grade of these teams seems to overshadow that of any of the other teams.
From most to fewest, I have listed below the number of players graded 130 or above in each club, (according to the ECF grading site):
Cosham 15
Gosport 13
Chichester 9
Emsworth 7
Fareham 6
Portsmouth 5
On paper it seems that all teams have enough strong players to field a 6 player team in Division 1, however, when taking into account inactive players who are listed on these sites, the numbers reduce greatly, and only those clubs with around twice as many 130+ players as listed on the their ECF page can turn out a team that is strong enough on every board week in week out to compete with the top teams.
Portsmouth Chess Club struggled this year as we only had 1 player graded over 130, (and one graded 129), due to absense of some players, graded over 150 for example, who previously played for us.
For a further interesting statistic, I will write down the six grades during the highest graded turnout for each club in Division 1 this season:
Cosham: Very high grades uniformly. 166 mean.
179
177
177
156
156
151
Gosport: Very high grades uniformly. 162 mean.
177
166
163
157
158
152
Emsworth: Very high at the top 4, but weaker than Cosham and Gosport on the bottom 2 boards. 149.5 mean.
173
169
163
157
134
101
Chichester: Generally very high but not as high as Gosport or Cosham on average. 150 mean.
175
153
142
155
140
137
Fareham: Star player on board 1, but only top 2 boards as high as Gosport or Cosham. Mean not given due to ungraded players.
208
161
139
u
125
u
Portsmouth: Completely outgraded. 109 mean.
133
129
113
96
94
89
Means: 166, 162, 150, 149.5, unknown, 109
Although grade is not a flawless measure of playing strength, it is a good guide to recent playing success, usually determined entirely by the results of the previous season. For this reason, a gap of approximately 30 or more can make a big difference even if the lower rated player is an improving player. And for players who are largely not showing improvement over a a large number of years, even a difference of about 10 or 15 probably makes a significant difference between the chances of the two players.
Looking at the data, it appears that two teams have a realistic chance of challenging the Cosham-Gosport duo for the league title: namely Emsworth and Chichester. Over the course of the season the results do tend to favour the teams with an average grade of 10 higher per board, but I believe that a team with only lagging by approximately 10 on each board who are sufficiently motivated have a very good chance of upsetting Division 1 and winning ahead of Cosham and Gosport. I wish these two teams every luck in the coming 2007/8 season.
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